In December 2013, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its early publication of its 2014
Annual Energy Outlook, providing projections for the energy markets through
2040. NACS used EIA’s report to prepare our “Future of Fuels 2014” report.
The report seeks to determine how
EIA’s projections will directly affect
the retail fuels market, consumer use
of specific types of light duty vehicles
and the pace at which alternative fuels may gain market share.
Part three of the report, excerpted
here, focuses on non-liquid fuels.
Through the research, NACS learned
that non-liquid fuel alternatives
(propane, natural gas, electricity and
hydrogen) will increase their total
contribution to the light duty vehicle
energy consumption by 125%, but
contribute only a small amount of the
energy consumed by 2040. Electrici-
ty is projected to experience the
strongest growth in the non-liquid
market while hybrid vehicles are
forecast to capture the greatest share
of the light duty vehicle market. On
an energy equivalent basis, E85 is re-
ported as the most expensive fuel in
2012, followed by gasoline and diesel
fuel. By 2040, there is one change in
the three most expensive fuels — die-
sel becomes the second most expen-
sive behind E85 and above gasoline.
Electricity and natural gas are the
least expensive fuel choices through-
out the forecast.