Another challenge facing the RFS is the requirement that a significant portion of the renewable
fuels used to satisfy the requirement must be advanced biofuels, such as cellulosic ethanol. EPA
has three times reduced the required volume of cellulosic ethanol due to its lack of availability.
EIA does not forecast this situation changing much through 2040 and the vast majority of ethanol used in the United States will be produced using corn as a primary feedstock. (Chart 4)
While EIA projects a strong market for renewable fuels through 2040, its forecasts do not meet
the requirements of the RFS, which will leave the market and public officials searching for alternative methods to comply with the program.
Part three of the “Future of Fuels 2014” will focus on Non-Liquid Fuels in our May issue.
SOURCES OF ETHANOL
CELL ULOSE CORN & O THER S TARCH NE T IM PORTS